Tuolumne Meadows, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

552
FXUS66 KHNX 060506
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1006 PM PDT Mon May 5 2025

.UPDATE...

Updated aviation section.

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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon and last into the early evening hours,
although mainly over the mountains.

2. Drying and warming return by the middle of next week with well
above normal temperatures. Widespread Valley temperatures reaching
90 degrees expected by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Lingering unsettled weather continues today as the upper low
producing the showers push deeper into the Desert Southwest. At
this point, lingering showers expected to reach as far west as
Tulare and Kern Counties as a chance (20%-35%) mountain and
desert showers exist today. Temperatures have started modifying
as a warming trend will now take hold of the region. This
warming trend as a ridge pattern moves into the area will lessen
the threat of strong winds as we enter a period of dry and warm
conditions.

Ensemble mean upper-air analysis places the upper low near the
Four Corners area with minimal instability able to reach the
Southern Sierra Nevada this afternoon. At that point, ensemble
instability over the San Joaquin Valley is near zero with
Probability of Thunder between 10%-15% across the Sierra Crest
from Kern to Fresno Counties during the afternoon hours. By
Tuesday, the upper low is across the Mid-west and ridging will
than take hold of the West Coast. A warming trend this week with
lead toward max temperatures reaching the 90s by Friday. With
each passing day, PoE of reaching 90 degrees goes up by 20% with
probabilities of 80%-90% on Friday. Therefore, confidence is
high in having the max temperatures approach 90 degrees on
Thursday with the first mid 90 degree day on Friday, May 9th.
Snow-melt from warm temperatures will allow for cloud
development during the ridge pattern as PoE of measurable
precipitation remains below 10% each day. By next Sunday/Monday,
with high uncertainty, ensemble hint toward another disturbance
entering the region for another round of unsettled conditions.
At the present moment, PoE of measurable precipitation sits a
10%-20% across the Sierra Nevada with the higher probabilities
closer to Yosemite.

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z Update:
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in much of the
San Joaquin Valley. Localized areas of MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible after 18Z Tuesday due to cumulus cloud build ups along
the Sierra Nevada mountains, though these clouds are unlikely
to develop into thunderstorms.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  05/05/2025 14:09
EXPIRES: 05/06/2025 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...Molina
aviation....EW

weather.gov/hanford